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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-07-24T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-07-24T00:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17370/-1
CME Note: Visible to the east in SOHO LASCO/C2 and C3; halo in STEREO A COR2. Associated with eruption from AR 12849 (S18E47), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-07-23T23:42Z, and associated with C4.3 flare beginning 2021-07-23T23:54Z. From Lan Jian: no clear features of iCME arrival found on 07-26 to 07-28 (stream interface seen at ~2021-07-28T04:50Z).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-27T00:43Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]

% Compiled module: EAM_V3.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 600.0 km/s 
The EAM version you are running is: v3
u_r =      371.400
Acceleration:       1.60175
Duration in seconds:        259649.55
Duration in days:        3.0052032
t2 is negative
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:   1.60 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  787.3 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 27/07/2021 Time: 00:43 UT

Lead Time: 60.72 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-07-24T12:00Z

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